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However, between 2009–2019, their growth rates diverged while food-at-home prices deflated in 20, monthly food-away-from-home prices rose consistently. Food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 8.3 percent, with a prediction interval of 7.1 to 9.6 percent.īetween the 1970s and early 2000s, food-at-home prices and food-away-from-home prices increased at similar rates. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 8.6 percent, with a prediction interval of 5.6 to 11.8 percent. In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase 7.9 percent, with a prediction interval of 5.5 to 10.3 percent. The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.6 percent in January 2023 and was 8.2 percent higher than January 2022.įood prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 but still at above historical average rates.The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 0.8 percent from December 2022 to January 2023 and was 11.3 percent higher than January 2022 and.The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption at home or away from home: The CPI for all food increased 0.7 percent from December 2022 to January 2023, and food prices were 10.1 percent higher than in January 2022. The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, rose by 0.8 percent from December 2022 to January 2023 and was up 6.4 percent from January 2022. Time-Series Methods for Forecasting and Modeling Uncertainty in the Food Price OutlookĬonsumer Price Index for Food (not seasonally adjusted) ERS will continue to produce new monthly forecasts using both the updated methods and the legacy methods through June 2023. Forecasts using the prior forecasting methodology remain available as data files (“Legacy Data”). As of January 2023, the Food Price Outlook Summary Findings are based on the revised data series. Note: The Food Price Outlook data series and forecasting methodology were revised in January 2023 based on the approach documented in the following report. See the Overview page for Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data sets. This page summarizes the February 2023 forecasts, which incorporate the January 2023 Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index numbers.

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